“Entscheidungsreue” is German for “decision regret.” JPMorgan energy expert Michael Cembalest estimates that Germany’s decision to decommission its nuclear power plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster may have raised electricity prices by 25%.
Additional details are found in this March 9, 2026 article, "The cost of Germany's long and painful nuclear regret."
Germany's decision to decommission its nuclear program may have raised electricity prices by 25%.....
.....German energy intensive manufacturing output
The competitive repercussions have been severe: Germany's industrial power prices are now three times higher than those of the U.S. and China. This partly explains, Cembalest writes, the deindustrialization that has afflicted its economy so debilitatingly in the last few years.
Cembalest cites research by Radiant Energy Group that the cost of restarting Class 2 reactors could be $1 billion to $ 3 billion each. It's feasible, they say, but it's not cheap......
On Monday, March 16, 2026, Roger Pielke, Jr. analyzed a pair of scenarios where Europe grew its nuclear power fleet instead of cutting it back during the past 15 years.. "How Europe Undermined Its Own Energy Security - The revealing math behind Europe's nuclear power blunder"
My summary is that Europe would have been much more immune to fossil energy supply shocks like Russia's use of its natural gas supply as a means to project power outside its borders. Minimizing those supply shocks was the rationale for France's decision to grow its nuclear reactor fleet after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. As a result, France's electric power sector emits considerably less pollution per kilowatt-hour than neighboring Germany which unilaterally and unnecessarily shut down its nuclear reactor fleet by 2023. France's electricity is also much more economical than Germany's
I believe if California's energy choices during the same time frame were analyzed, the results would be similar to Germany's When California's large electricity imports are properly accounted for. power sector pollution has increased. California also has the highest power rates in the continental U.S.
"...Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that while he agrees with von der Leyen’s views, “This has no implications for Germany, because the German federal government has already decided to phase out nuclear energy” and “that decision is irreversible.”.."
So much for hope and change, voting for an establishment conservative. A little lesson for America if they endorse the new neocon Republican establishment.
I believe the German business community will eventually tire of Merz's tirades opposing -nuclear power. However, your caution regarding campaign "promises" is warranted. Many political leaders were elected supporting a political issue, then opposing that issue once they are elected. :-(
From the Wall Street Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/energy-crisis-gives-a-crew-of-farming-microbes-a-shot-at-redemption-bb777746
Nuclear Entscheidungsreue
“Entscheidungsreue” is German for “decision regret.” JPMorgan energy expert Michael Cembalest estimates that Germany’s decision to decommission its nuclear power plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster may have raised electricity prices by 25%.
Additional details are found in this March 9, 2026 article, "The cost of Germany's long and painful nuclear regret."
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026030945/the-cost-of-germanys-long-and-painful-nuclear-regret
By Jules Rimmer
Germany's decision to decommission its nuclear program may have raised electricity prices by 25%.....
.....German energy intensive manufacturing output
The competitive repercussions have been severe: Germany's industrial power prices are now three times higher than those of the U.S. and China. This partly explains, Cembalest writes, the deindustrialization that has afflicted its economy so debilitatingly in the last few years.
Cembalest cites research by Radiant Energy Group that the cost of restarting Class 2 reactors could be $1 billion to $ 3 billion each. It's feasible, they say, but it's not cheap......
On Monday, March 16, 2026, Roger Pielke, Jr. analyzed a pair of scenarios where Europe grew its nuclear power fleet instead of cutting it back during the past 15 years.. "How Europe Undermined Its Own Energy Security - The revealing math behind Europe's nuclear power blunder"
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-europe-undermined-its-own-energy
My summary is that Europe would have been much more immune to fossil energy supply shocks like Russia's use of its natural gas supply as a means to project power outside its borders. Minimizing those supply shocks was the rationale for France's decision to grow its nuclear reactor fleet after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. As a result, France's electric power sector emits considerably less pollution per kilowatt-hour than neighboring Germany which unilaterally and unnecessarily shut down its nuclear reactor fleet by 2023. France's electricity is also much more economical than Germany's
I believe if California's energy choices during the same time frame were analyzed, the results would be similar to Germany's When California's large electricity imports are properly accounted for. power sector pollution has increased. California also has the highest power rates in the continental U.S.
For an optimistic note, please see Ruth Sponsler's March 12, 2026 article, "The Strait of Hormuz and the Messmer Plan - 1972 Redux"
https://ruthsponsler1.substack.com/p/the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-messmer
However in actual fact:
"...Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said that while he agrees with von der Leyen’s views, “This has no implications for Germany, because the German federal government has already decided to phase out nuclear energy” and “that decision is irreversible.”.."
So much for hope and change, voting for an establishment conservative. A little lesson for America if they endorse the new neocon Republican establishment.
I believe the German business community will eventually tire of Merz's tirades opposing -nuclear power. However, your caution regarding campaign "promises" is warranted. Many political leaders were elected supporting a political issue, then opposing that issue once they are elected. :-(