No surprise the inundation study is not completed. I showed with photographs how SoCalGas natural gas transmission line 44-1088 is being bent by aseismic creep about a yard from the pipeline centerline where it crosses the San Andreas Fault above ground near Cholame, CA. As best I can tell, this line was moved above ground in response to a regulatory order circa 1990 to facilitate repairs after the next earthquake there.
In CPUC filings, I connected this aseismic creep with the October 1, 2017 rupture of SoCalGas Line 235-2 near the Newberry Springs Compressor Station. There is an active fault that Line 235-2 crosses there which runs parallel to the San Andreas Fault, per a USGS map. No California decision-makers seem to be interested in CGNP's observations. I've located references showing interest in aseismic creep's harms to pipelines. The google query of both phrases "aseismic creep" and "natural gas pipelines" yielded nine results on 29 August 2024.
One only has to look at a map of the West Coast natural gas transmission pipeline system to understand how fragile it is. Compared to the Texas and the Ohio/Pennsylvania system it's almost just a soda straw. Even with all that redundancy PJM and ERCOT still had gas issues in freezing weather.
California is mentioned 9 times. Almost all of the conterminous U.S. earthquake risk is in California. See Figure 8. There are 7 instances of "conterminous." See also the 312-page 2008 USGS "Shakeout Scenario" here: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/of2008-1150.pdf
The appendices to the 2008 USGS Shakeout Scenario, particularly Appendices C through G are very relevant regarding the seismic vulnerabilities of pipelines. This 360 MByte Zipped file includes all of the Appendices:
Thank you, that's a deep dive that I will plan on running through. I know besides the San Andreas threat , they are still studying the impacts of the newly understood Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Thank you. My wife and I live about ten air miles from Diablo Canyon Power Plant. I've been spending time working to understand the unique faults and underground features of San Luis Obispo County. Diablo Canyon is on the west side of the county, The San Andreas Fault is on the east side. .
From what I have read, Diablo is at greater risk from the tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, than the shake from San Andreas. The concern is an inundation like happened to Fukajima.
Nope. The lowest level of the turbine deck is 85 feet above sea level, The maximum plausible tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone would be around 30 feet. Another safety feature at Diablo Canyon is storing five million gallons of cooling water at the 310 foot elevation. That means if it is needed, the water will flow by gravity. Any shaking on the San Andreas Fault will be significantly attenuated after it has traversed more than 30 miles across San Luis Obispo County.
Here's a relevant post from almost two years ago (September 6, 2022) regarding the California Heat Storm discussed in the article - and the important role of Diablo Canyon in maintaining grid reliability.. https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-9-6-another-round-of-rolling-blackouts-in-california
I highly recommend the Manhattan Contrarian blog by retired Attorney Francis Menton.
Thank you for all your hard work and contributions in the field
You are welcome. BTW, the link to the supporting documents is https://cgnp.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/A2403018-CGNP-Rebuttal-Supporting-Documents-08-20-24.pdf
Good to hear, I read that a long bit ago and they may not have completed the inundation study yet.
No surprise the inundation study is not completed. I showed with photographs how SoCalGas natural gas transmission line 44-1088 is being bent by aseismic creep about a yard from the pipeline centerline where it crosses the San Andreas Fault above ground near Cholame, CA. As best I can tell, this line was moved above ground in response to a regulatory order circa 1990 to facilitate repairs after the next earthquake there.
In CPUC filings, I connected this aseismic creep with the October 1, 2017 rupture of SoCalGas Line 235-2 near the Newberry Springs Compressor Station. There is an active fault that Line 235-2 crosses there which runs parallel to the San Andreas Fault, per a USGS map. No California decision-makers seem to be interested in CGNP's observations. I've located references showing interest in aseismic creep's harms to pipelines. The google query of both phrases "aseismic creep" and "natural gas pipelines" yielded nine results on 29 August 2024.
🤦♂️
One only has to look at a map of the West Coast natural gas transmission pipeline system to understand how fragile it is. Compared to the Texas and the Ohio/Pennsylvania system it's almost just a soda straw. Even with all that redundancy PJM and ERCOT still had gas issues in freezing weather.
Good points: Here's a 2017 CEC analysis of inundation risk to California's natural gas pipelines below sea level: . https://v2.cal-adapt.org/media/files/CEC-500-2017-008.pdf A natural gas system map is on page 68 of 141. Almost all California gas transmission lines cross the San Andreas Fault. For California pipeline seismic vulnerability, see the 2021 ASCE paper. https://ascelibrary.org/doi/epdf/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001202
California is mentioned 9 times. Almost all of the conterminous U.S. earthquake risk is in California. See Figure 8. There are 7 instances of "conterminous." See also the 312-page 2008 USGS "Shakeout Scenario" here: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/of2008-1150.pdf
The appendices to the 2008 USGS Shakeout Scenario, particularly Appendices C through G are very relevant regarding the seismic vulnerabilities of pipelines. This 360 MByte Zipped file includes all of the Appendices:
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/appendixes/of2008-1150_appendixes.zip
Thank you, that's a deep dive that I will plan on running through. I know besides the San Andreas threat , they are still studying the impacts of the newly understood Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Thank you. My wife and I live about ten air miles from Diablo Canyon Power Plant. I've been spending time working to understand the unique faults and underground features of San Luis Obispo County. Diablo Canyon is on the west side of the county, The San Andreas Fault is on the east side. .
From what I have read, Diablo is at greater risk from the tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, than the shake from San Andreas. The concern is an inundation like happened to Fukajima.
Nope. The lowest level of the turbine deck is 85 feet above sea level, The maximum plausible tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone would be around 30 feet. Another safety feature at Diablo Canyon is storing five million gallons of cooling water at the 310 foot elevation. That means if it is needed, the water will flow by gravity. Any shaking on the San Andreas Fault will be significantly attenuated after it has traversed more than 30 miles across San Luis Obispo County.